Speech

Governor Urban Bäckström

What Lessons Can be Learned from Recent Financial Crises?

The Swedish Experience

First a word of thanks to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for the invitation to

discuss the financial problems Sweden went through in the early 1990s. I shall also try to

draw some conclusions from our experiences that may be relevant for other countries.

Before I came to Sveriges Riksbank I was state secretary at the Ministry of Finance and

involved among other things in the management of Sweden's financial crisis. While there

had, of course, been a good many indications of mounting problems, I was personally

beginning of October 1991 I had been in the job just a few days when I got a call from the

head of the Financial Supervisory Authority (banking supervision in Sweden is performed

by this authority, not by the central bank). He wanted to inform the Government that a

large Swedish bank had more than exhausted its equity capital and would have to go

bankrupt if a reconstruction could not be arranged.

While working at the Ministry of Finance on the initial problems in the banking sector

we started to study historical and international records of financial crises. Irving Fisher's

among others, Benjamin Friedman, Paul Krugman, Lawrence Summers and our chairman

today,

E. Gerald Corrigan.

The conclusion from these sources was that a fall in asset prices, such as we had in

Sweden, may create problems for private sector balance sheets, affect the supply of credit

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and result in payment system disturbances. Step by step this may affect spending decisions

by households and firms, thereby impinging on general economic activity. A destabilised

financial system can bring the economy into what Fisher termed "debt deflation", that is, a

situation where the financial crisis may become very serious and protracted.

Thus it was important both to avoid a widespread failure of Swedish banks and to bring

about a macroeconomic stabilisation. The two are interdependent. The collapse of much of

the banking system would aggravate the macroeconomic weaknesses, just as failure to

stabilise the economy would accentuate the banking crisis.

But here first is a brief account of the Swedish crisis.

The economic problems in Sweden in the early 1990s should be seen in their historical

context. For several reasons, economic growth in Sweden has been relatively weak ever

since about 1970. Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the creation of a

stable macroeconomic environment turned out to be difficult. Wage formation functioned

badly, fiscal policy was unduly weak and this was gradually compounded by structural

problems.

Credit market deregulation in 1985, necessary in itself, meant that the monetary

conditions became more expansionary. This coincided, moreover, with rising activity,

relatively high inflation expectations, a tax system that favoured borrowing, and

remaining exchange controls that restrained investment in foreign assets. In the absence of

a more restrictive economic policy to parry all this, the freer credit market led to a rapidly

sector debt moved up from 85 to 135 per cent. The credit boom coincided with rising

share and real estate prices. During the second half of the 1980s real aggregate asset prices

The expansion of credit was also associated with increased real economic demand.

Private financial saving dropped by as much as 7 percentage points of GDP and turned

negative. The economy became overheated and inflation accelerated. Sizeable currentaccount

deficits, accompanied by large outflows of direct-investment and other long-term

capital (once exchange control had been finally abandoned in the late 1980s), led to a

growing stock of private sector short-term debt in foreign currency.

Step by step the Swedish economy became increasingly vulnerable to shocks. During

1990 matters came to a head. Competitiveness had been eroded by the relatively high

inflation in the late 1980s, resulting in an overvalued currency. This caused exports to

weaken and meant that the fixed exchange rate policy began to be questioned, leading to

periods with relatively high nominal interest rates. Moreover, the tax system was reformed

in order to reduce its harmful economic effects but this also contributed to higher post-tax

interest rates. Asset prices began to fall and economic activity turned downwards.

Between the summers of 1990 and 1993 GDP dropped by a total of 6 per cent. Aggregate

unemployment shot up from 3 to 12 per cent of the labour force and the public sector

deficit worsened to as much as 12 per cent of GDP. A tidal wave of bankruptcies was a

real estate prices. It will be seen from the figure that the higher asset prices have not been accompanied by

an expansion of credit.

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heavy blow to the banking sector, which in this period had to make provisions for loan

losses totalling the equivalent of 12 per cent of annual GDP.

While this course of events stemmed, as I have indicated, from a variety of factors, it

was no doubt the financial vulnerability that helped make it so dramatic. The Swedish

economy was steadily approaching a situation that entailed both a banking and a currency

crisis. Matters were most acute in the fall of 1992 in conjunction with the European

currency unrest. The crisis in banking was triggered, not by a classic bank run but by a

loss of international confidence and difficulties with international financing. In many

respects the crisis in Sweden resembled what has happened in a number of other countries.

By the summer of 1993 the economy was becoming more stable and the problems in

banking receded. Fiscal and monetary policy contributed to this and so did a deliberate

policy of handling problem banks.

The private sector's financial balance underwent a dramatic change, moving from a

deficit of about 8 per cent of GDP in 1990 to a financial surplus of over 11 per cent in

1993. This was a swing of almost 20 percentage points of GDP in the course of only three

years. A good deal of the swing no doubt came from private sector adjustments to cope

with insufficient solvency. Falling asset prices in conjunction with high debt levels lead to

balance-sheet problems in the private sector.

The automatic stabilisers in the government budget probably helped to lessen the

contraction of GDP. This meant that business profits and household disposable income

were sustained relatively well. But it also entailed a massive increase in the budget deficit

and this in turn generated new problems. The government debt trend became

unsustainable and economic policy's credibility was weakened.

In the early stages of the crisis, monetary policy was directed to maintain the fixed

exchange rate. This line had broad support among the general public as well as in the

political system. The aim was to establish a low-inflation policy once and for all. But in

spite of major efforts, both political and economic, the international currency unrest in

November 1992 meant that the fixed exchange rate had to be abandoned. It was replaced

by a flexible exchange rate and an explicit inflation target. This resulted in a considerable

depreciation of Sweden's currency but during 1993 the continued fall in international bond

rates meant that Swedish interest rates also moved down to levels that were comparatively

low. Together with the Riksbank's reduction of its instrumental rate, this gave the

monetary conditions a stimulatory turn. It also helped to stabilise both the economy and

the banking system. Lower market rates eased the fall in asset prices, lightened the burden

of servicing private sector debt and mitigated the negative impact on the financial system.

Rescuing the banking sector was necessary to avoid a collapse of the real economy.

There is no evidence that a credit crunch developed, though anecdotal information did

suggest that creditors became more restrictive. I shall be returning shortly and in more

detail to how the banking problems were tackled.

In 1994 the major budget problems and the expansionary monetary conditions rebounded.

Inflation expectations began to move up in many parts of the economy and when

interest rates increased worldwide in the spring of 1994, bond rates in Sweden rose much

more than in other countries - from just under 7 per cent to over 12 per cent in a few

months. This was accompanied by a further weakening of the exchange rate to levels that

were appreciably below any reasonable assessment of the real equilibrium rate.

The situation called, in other words, for an economic policy realignment - for what we

can call aftercare once the acute financial crisis had been checked. A major consolidation

of government finance was launched, accompanied by a tightening of the monetary stance

which demonstrated that the 2 per cent inflation target was to be taken seriously.

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In time this course has enhanced economic policy's credibility and led to more

permanent economic stabilisation.

To those of us who were working on the initial banking problems it was soon clear that

the crisis in Swedish banking could become very serious. In spring 1992 preparations

were therefore made to cope with a variety of conceivable situations. Later we found that

our worst-case scenario was on the verge of happening.

Looking back, one can see that in the course of the crisis the seven largest banks, with

90 per cent of the market, all suffered heavy losses. In these years their aggregate loan

losses amounted to the equivalent of 12 per cent of Sweden's annual GDP. The stock of

non-performing loans was much larger than the banking sector's total equity capital and

five of the seven largest banks were obliged to obtain capital contributions from either the

State or their owners. It was thus truly a matter of a systemic crisis.

In connection with a serious financial crisis it is important first and foremost to

maintain the banking system's liquidity. It is a matter of preventing large segments of the

banking system from failing on account of acute financing problems.

In September 1992 the Government and the Opposition jointly announced a general

guarantee for the whole of the banking system. The Riksdag, Sweden's parliament,

formally approved the guarantee that December. This broad political consensus was I

believe of vital importance and made the prompt handling of the financial crisis possible.

The bank guarantee provided protection from losses for all creditors except shareholders.

The Government's mandate from Parliament was not restricted to a specific sum

and its hands were also very free in other respects. This necessitated close cooperation

with the political opposition in the actual management of the banking problems. The

decision was of course troublesome and far-reaching. Besides involving difficult

considerations to do, for example, with the cost to the public sector, it raised such

questions as the risk of moral hazard.

The political system concluded that in the event of widespread failures in the banking

system, the national economy would suffer major repercussions. The direct outlays in

connection with the capital injection into the banking sector added up to just over 4 per

cent of GDP. However, it is now calculated that most of this can be recovered.

One way of limiting moral hazard problems was to engage in tough negotiations with

the banks that needed support and to enforce the principle that losses were to be covered

in the first place with the capital provided by shareholders.

A separate authority was set up to administer the bank guarantee and manage the banks

that landed in a crisis and faced problems with solvency, though the crucial decisions

about the provision of support were ultimately a matter for the Government. A clear

separation of roles was achieved between the political level and the authorities, as well as

between different authorities. Naturally this did not preclude very close cooperation

between the Ministry of Finance, the Bank Support Authority, the Financial Supervisory

Authority and the Riksbank.

It was up to the Riksbank to supply liquidity on a relatively large scale at normal

interest and repayment terms but not to solve problems of bank solvency. Collateral was

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not required for the loans to banks, neither intraday nor overnight. The banking system

was free to obtain unlimited liquidity by drawing on its accounts with the central bank.

The bank guarantee meant that the solvency of the Riksbank was not at risk. In order to

offset the loss of foreign credit lines to Swedish banks, during the height of the crisis the

Riksbank also lent large amounts in foreign currency.

Banks applying for support had their assets valued by the Bank Support Authority,

using uniform criteria. The banks were then divided into categories, depending on whether

they were judged to have only temporary problems as opposed to no prospect of becoming

viable. Knowledge of the appropriate procedures was built up by degrees, not least with

the assistance of people with experience of banking problems in other countries.

The Swedish Bank Support Authority had to choose between two alternative strategies.

and using the bank's current income for a gradual write-down of the loss making assets.

One advantage of this method is that it helps to avoid the bank being forced to massive

sales of assets at prices below long run market values. A serious disadvantage is that the

method presupposes that the bank problems can be resolved relatively quickly; otherwise

the difficulties compound, leading to much greater problems when they ultimately

materialise. The handling of problems among savings and loan institution in the United

expected losses and writedowns is presented at an early stage. This clarifies the extent of

the problems and the support that is required. Provided the authorities and the banks make

it credible that no additional problems have been concealed, this procedure also promotes

confidence. It entails a risk of creating an exaggerated perception of the magnitude of the

problems, for instance if real estate that has been taken over at unduly cautiously

estimated values in a market that is temporarily depressed. This can lead, for instance, to

borrowers in temporary difficulties being forced to accept harsher terms, which in turn can

result in payments being suspended.

The Swedish authorities opted for the second method: disclose expected loan losses

and assign realistic values to real estate and other assets. This method was consistent with

other basic principles for the bank support, such as the need to restore confidence.

Looking back, it can be said that in general the level of valuation was realistic.

Since the acute crisis had been triggered by difficulties in obtaining international

finance, great pains were taken to give a transparent picture of how the crisis was being

managed so as to gain the confidence of Sweden's creditors. This applied both to the

account of the magnitude of the banking problems and to the content of the bank

guarantee. Various informative projects were arranged for this purpose throughout the

world. In Sweden, too, considerable efforts were made to legitimise the measures and their

costs.

The banking problems did arouse a lively debate in Swedish society but the work could

still be done in broad political consensus, which was a great advantage. The bank

guarantee was terminated in 1996 and replaced with a deposit guarantee that is financed

entirely by the banks.

The problems in the Swedish banking system at the beginning of this decade seem to have

been more extensive than those which arose in Sweden in the early 1920s. The two

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periods also differ substantially in the management of the crisis. This may have had a

bearing on the very different course of events in these two crises. In the early 1920s the

fall in GDP totalled 18 per cent and the price level dropped 30 per cent in the course of

two years. In the 1990s the loss of GDP stopped at around 6 per cent and the price trend

did not become really deflationary.

Allow me now to summarise what I consider to be the most important lessons from

Sweden's financial crisis:

The primary conclusion from our experience of Sweden's financial crisis is that

various steps should be taken to ensure that the conditions for a financial crisis do not

arise.

increases in asset prices and credit stocks that would be liable to boost inflation and create

background to a financial crisis had been followed systematically, then incipient problems

could have been detected early on. That in turn could have influenced the conduct of fiscal

and monetary policy so that Sweden's financial crisis was contained or even prevented. In

spite of the evident signs, few if any in the public discussion warned of what might

an outright financial crisis since the 1930s. As a result, economists had devoted relatively

little work to the analysis of this subject, being more concerned to understand the more

normal economic world. This symposium is a positive sign that matters have changed in

that respect. The conclusion drawn by the Riksbank is that various indicators must be

followed systematically with the aim of detecting any signs of potential financial problems

and systemic risks.

that emerged after credit market deregulation. This meant that during the 1980s the

banks were able to grant loans on doubtful and sometimes even directly unsound grounds

without any supervisory intervention. In addition, in many cases the loans were poorly

documented. The lesson from this is that much must be required of a supervisor operating

in an environment characterised by deregulated markets.

contrary, asset price movements may herald changes in fundamental conditions and thereby serve as signals

for resource allocation. But problems may follow if rising asset prices generate a rapid expansion of credit,

leading to a general impairment of solvency and a growing dependence on rapidly uprated collateral, as

happened in Sweden in the 1980s.

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In a sense all major financial crises are unique and therefore difficult to prepare for and

avoid. Once a crisis is about to develop there are some important lessons concerning its

handling that can be learnt.

management of Sweden's banking crisis the political consensus was of major importance

for the payment system's credibility among the Swedish public as well as among the

banking system's creditors throughout the world. The transparent approach to the banking

problems and the various projects for spreading information no doubt had a positive

effect, too.

important. The terms for recapitalisation should be such as to avoid moral hazard

problems.

can help to mitigate the economy's depressive tendencies but they also entail risks.

Economic policy has to strike a fine balance so that inflation expectations do not rise, the

exchange rate weakens and interest rates move up, which could do more harm than good.

In this respect a small, open economy has less freedom of action than a larger economy.

banking system would aggravate the macroeconomic weaknesses, just as failure to

stabilise the economy would accentuate the banking crisis.

University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London.

vol. 1 (October), pp. 337-357.

Ingves, S. and Lind, G., (1996), The management of the bank