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It’s the work of South Australian academic Dr Kesten C. Green and American forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong:
We summarize evidence showing that the
global warming alarm movement has more of the character of a political movement than that of a scientific controversy. We
then make forecasts of the effects and outcomes of this movement using a structured analysis of analogous situations—a
method that has been shown to produce accurate forecasts for conflict situations… We searched the literature and asked diverse experts to identify phenomena that could be characterized as alarms warning
of future disasters that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media, and that were accompanied by calls for strong
action. The search yielded 71 possible analogies. We examined objective accounts to screen the possible analogies and found
that 26 met all criteria. We coded each for forecasting procedures used, the accuracy of the forecasts, the types of actions
called for, and the effects of actions implemented. Our preliminary
findings are that analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting
procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor.
Costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. The government policies
failed to prevent ill effects… The structured analogies approach suggests that the current global warming alarm is simply
the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. We conclude that the global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional
harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior decisions on the basis of unscientific forecasts… Introduction To
date, no scientific forecasts support the alarm over dangerous manmade global warming. Improper procedures were used to forecast
dangerous warming, and there has been no validation to support their use (Green and Armstrong 2007a; Green, Armstrong and
Soon 2009). The basic claim by those who promote alarming predictions of dangerous manmade global warming is that nearly all
scientists agree that it will occur. However, voting by scientists on what will happen in the future is not a proper approach
to science. Moreover, the claim that nearly all scientists agree has been shown to be false by surveys and by petitions signed
by identified scientists with relevant qualifications (e.g., Bray and von Storch 2007; Robinson, Robinson and Soon 2007).
Despite published and verifiable evidence that the claim of scientific consensus is false, global warming alarmists continue
to repeat this claim… Exhibit 1: Analogies to the alarm
over dangerous manmade global warming Analogy Year 1
Population growth and famine (Malthus) 1798 2 Timber famine economic threat 1865
3
Uncontrolled reproduction and degeneration (Eugenics) 1883
4 Lead in petrol and brain and organ damage 1928
5
Soil erosion agricultural production threat 1934
6 Asbestos and lung disease 1939
7 Fluoride in drinking
water health effects 1945
8 DDT and cancer 1962
9 Population growth and famine (Ehrlich) 1968
10
Global cooling; through to 1975 1970
11 Supersonic airliners, the ozone hole, and skin cancer, etc. 1970
12
Environmental tobacco smoke health effects 1971
13 Population growth and famine (Meadows) 1972
14 Industrial
production and acid rain 1974
15 Organophosphate pesticide poisoning 1976
16 Electrical wiring and cancer,
etc. 1979
17 CFCs, the ozone hole, and skin cancer, etc. 1985
18 Listeria in cheese 1985
19 Radon
in homes and lung cancer 1985
20 Salmonella in eggs 1988
21 Environmental toxins and breast cancer 1990
22
Mad cow disease (BSE) 1996
23 Dioxin in Belgian poultry 1999
24 Mercury in fish effect on nervous system
development 2004
25 Mercury in childhood inoculations and autism 2005
26 Cell phone towers and cancer, etc.
2008 None of the 26 alarming forecasts that we examined was accurate. Based on analyses to date, 19 of the forecasts were
categorically wrong (the direction of the effect was opposite to the alarming forecast), and the remaining 7 of the forecast
effects were wrong in degree (no effect or only minor effects actually occurred). Our impression from analyzing the analogies is that global warming alarm is just another example in a long history
of calamity forecasts similar to those described in Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds (MacKay 1841)… The media give much attention to alarmists,
but little to those who are skeptical of their claims. Alarms tend to fade out of the media as alarming forecasts fail to
come true. The global warming movement has persisted despite failed forecasts that dangerous warming will happen quickly.
In fact, temperatures have been flat to declining for more than a decade....
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